Summary
GRI and evolutionQ have released the seventh Quantum Threat Timeline Report (9 Mar 2026), authored by Dr. Michele Mosca and Dr. Marco Piani. Surveying 26 experts across academia and industry, it places the 10-year probability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer at 28% to 49%, the highest in the series. The report remains a go-to reference for CISOs and risk leaders calibrating PQC migration and tracking proximity to Q-Day.
The uptick reflects accelerating technical progress. Recent results, from Gidney’s sub-million-qubit RSA factoring estimates to Google Quantum AI’s ECC resource reductions and error correction beyond break-even on multiple platforms, are reshaping expectations for the hardware a CRQC will need. Expert sentiment in this edition captures that shift, and the numbers reflect it.
Implication for security teams: accelerate crypto agility and PQC adoption. Prioritize data with long confidentiality lifetimes, inventory and classify cryptography, pilot NIST PQC standards and hybrid modes, assess vendor dependencies, and monitor harvest-now-decrypt-later risk. Watch for updates to this survey, since rapid advances can outpace annual snapshots.
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See the original article at: https://postquantum.com/security-pqc/quantum-threat-timeline-report-2025/